Making sense of volatility

NBR Articles, Published 30th April 2024

Sensible investors will appreciate that a realistic expectation for global equity markets (in aggregate) is for long-term returns to exceed inflation by about 5% or 6% per annum.

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Will the market share your bullish views when the tide goes out?

NBR Articles, Published 26th March 2024

In my 31 years of equity analysis and portfolio management, the language used by equity analysts and other market participants to communicate their ideas has become more short-term in nature than ever before.

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Home bias plus passive investment equals distorted markets

NBR Articles, Published 20th February 2024

Advocates of passive investing will generally claim that the combined impact of passive investors on the relative market pricing of different equities is minimal.

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Paradoxes & pitfalls of measuring average returns

NBR Articles, Published 16th January 2024

Over the past 6 calendar years, the arithmetic average annual return from bitcoin has been 78. 9% when measured in US dollars.

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Noise or trend? Or seasonal effect?

NBR Articles, Published 21st November 2023

At a certain level, a lot of equity analysis is about predicting whether a squiggly line on a graph will move up or down in the future.

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Higher bond yields are a challenge for US equity valuations: Identifying the biggest losers

NBR Articles, Published 10th October 2023

US long-term bond yields have risen about 1.4 percentage points in the last 6 months.

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What drives margins?

NBR Articles, Published 12th September 2023

When considering a company's long-term profits, we often focus on sales changes and assume profitability follows suit.

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Forecasting long-run returns from the US share market

NBR Articles, Published 15th August 2023

Every day, a reader of market commentary and broker research will come across numerous views on how the share market is likely to perform for investors over time.

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Risk in Retirement

NBR Articles, Published 4th July 2023

Last week, I read an article in Stuff discussing whether $1 million was a sufficient pool of savings to provide for someone’s retirement.

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Generative AI: A few bad guesses

NBR Articles, Published 30th May 2023

You might like to guess whether or not ChatGPT wrote this article.

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